Top 3 NSE Pair Trading Opportunities – Dec 12, 2025
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Top 3 NSE Pair Trading Opportunities – December 12, 2025 Update (Fresh After 5 PM Analysis)
Updated at 5:30 PM IST – Welcome to another daily edition from QuantPair! As India's Nifty 50 hovers near all-time highs (up 10.8% YTD in 2025) amid steady domestic inflows and a volatile India VIX (~18), pair trading continues to shine as a market-neutral hedge. Our scanner, powered by 200-day cointegration tests on Yahoo Finance data, identifies divergences in correlated NSE stocks for low-risk mean-reversion plays.
Quick Reminder: Login required (email/Google – takes 10 seconds). 100% free, no subscriptions. Signals updated daily after 5 PM IST. Educational only – not SEBI-registered advice. Always paper trade first and consult a professional.
What Makes These Pairs Hot Today?
Today's scan focuses on high-correlation sectors like Metals, Banking/Finance, and Pharma, where temporary spreads (measured by ADF and Z-scores) signal entry points. We use:
- ADF Test: Augmented Dickey-Fuller for stationarity (values < -2.5 indicate strong mean-reversion potential).
- Z-Score: Deviation from historical mean (> ±2 = actionable; < -2 = LONG bias).
- F&O Integration: NSE lot sizes and margin estimates for practical execution.
Historical win rates for these setups: 70-80% over 5 years (backtested 2020-2025). But remember: Volatility from global cues (e.g., US Fed rates) can delay convergence.
Today's Top 3 NSE Pair Trading Opportunities (December 12, 2025)
Based on our post-5 PM refresh, here are the strongest signals. Full dashboard with 50+ pairs available after login.
| Rank | Sector | Pair | Buy | Sell | ADF Score | Z-Score | Signal | Expected Convergence | Historical Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metals | HINDALCO ↔ JSW STEEL | HINDALCO | JSW STEEL | -3.1 | -2.82 | STRONG LONG | 4-8 days | 78% |
| 2 | Banking/Finance | ICICI ↔ SBILIFE | ICICI | SBILIFE | -2.9 | 2.13 | STRONG SHORT | 5-10 days | 75% |
| 3 | Pharma | AUROPHARMA ↔ SUNPHARMA | AUROPHARMA | SUNPHARMA | -2.5 | -2.64 | LONG | 3-7 days | 72% |
Quick Analysis:
- #1: HINDALCO ↔ JSW STEEL (Metals): Strong commodity correlation (0.92) diverging on China demand fears. ADF -3.1 signals robust stationarity – ideal for F&O (NSE lots: 500 shares each, ~₹1.2L margin per leg).
- #2: ICICI ↔ SBILIFE (Banking/Finance): Insurance-linked finance pair showing +2.13 Z-score amid rate cut buzz. Short SBILIFE to capture reversion; watch RBI policy next week.
- #3: AUROPHARMA ↔ SUNPHARMA (Pharma): Sector peers with -2.64 deviation post-USFDA approvals. Pharma's low beta makes this a safe hedge in sideways markets.
How to Trade These Pairs on NSE (Step-by-Step Guide)
- Login to QuantPair: Access full Z-score charts and backtests.
- Confirm Correlation: Check 200-day ratio (should be >0.85).
- Entry Rules: Enter at Z-score ±2; exit at 0 or stop at ±3.
- Position Sizing: Use our F&O calculator (e.g., 1 lot HINDALCO = ₹50k margin).
- Risk Management: 1-2% account risk per pair; diversify sectors.
Example Trade Setup (HINDALCO-JSW STEEL): Buy 500 HINDALCO @ ₹650, Sell 500 JSW STEEL @ ₹750. Spread: ₹100/lot. Target: ₹50 convergence profit = ₹25k gain (minus brokerage).
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Disclaimer & Next Steps
This is educational content only. Pair trading risks include non-convergence and slippage. Not financial advice – consult a SEBI advisor. Data from public NSE/Yahoo feeds (may lag).
Next update: December 13, 2025 (after 5 PM). Bookmark and share!
– The QuantPair Team
v2.5.0 | Educational Use Only